Apr 07 A Systematic Review of COVID-19 Epidemiology Based on Current Evidence
Minah Park, Alex R. Cook, Jue Tao Lim, Yinxiaohe Sun and Borame L. Dickens
ABSTRACT
As the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) continues to spread rapidly around the world, we aimed to identify and summarize existing evidence on the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and the effectiveness of control measures to inform to policy makers and leaders in formulating management guidelines, and to provide directions for future research. We conducted a systematic review of published literature and preprints on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak following predefined eligibility criteria. Of 317 research articles generated from our initial search of PubMed and preprint archives on February 21, 2020, 41 met our inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Current evidence suggests that it takes between 3 and 7 days for the epidemic to double. Of 21 estimates, for the basic reproduction number, ranging between 1,9 and 6,5, 13 were between 2,0 and 3,0. The incubation period was estimated to be 4-6 days, while the serial interval was estimated to be 4-8 days. Although the true case fatality risk is still unknown, current estimates based on the models ranged from 0.3% to 1.4% outside of China. There is an urgent need for rigorous research focused on efforts to minimize the impact on society.